Deception, Despair and Delegates. The real story of primary season to date.
There is litle being said about the true status of the candidacies of the four remaining Republicans running for president. There are reasons for this. Much of what the reporters know is meaningless. Much of what they want you to know is at best irrelevant, at worst falsehood. I’ll try to keep my personal assumptions out of this and simply offer three possibilities from which you may choose.
1) Gosh darn it, this election stuff is just too dang difficult for reporters and simple folk like us to get right, so mistakes are bound to happen.
2) The abhorrent behemoth that is the melding of big government and big media has chosen to intentionally mislead us.
3) The average investigative reporter in 2012 generally neither investigates nor reports.
Just as a point of interest, of the 271 delegates comprised of the states who have voted thus far;113 delegates are BOUND at this point, 158 are open to vote for the candidate of their choice. It is entirely possible at this moment that the actual delegate leader is RON PAUL. I will try to give you as comprehensive a breakdown as can be gathered at this point.
IOWA 28 Delegates
Iowa has 28 delegates to send to the Nation Convention. All the hooplah aside, the popular vote held January 3rd was meaningless. NO Iowa delegates have thus far been allocated. The process of determining delegates began that night, but won’t end for some time. Once the final 28 delegates have made it through the paring down process, they will be open to vote for whomever they choose in the initial convention vote and any successive votes if the convention is brokered.(See link for more information on “brokered convention); http://politicaldictionary.com/words/brokered-convention/
NEW HAMPSHIRE 12 Delegates
New Hampshire has 12 delegates which are allocated proportionally according to popular vote. Based on results from the January 10th vote Mitt Romney was awarded 7 delegates, Ron Paul 3 and John Huntsman 2 (2). These are bound delegates, meaning they are required to vote for the person to whom they were allocated. (John Huntsman’s 2 delegates are released from allocation. More on this later.)
SOUTH CAROLINA 25 Delegates
South Carolina has 25 Delegates in 2012.
( Would normally have been 50 prior to RNC imposed penalty for not following new allocation and date guidelines as set by Rule #15b see here); http://www.gop.com/index.php/news/comments/republican_national_committee_approves_2012_presidential_nominating_process
South Carolina’s dlegates are allocated based on statewide and district results. Based on the popular vote results of January 21th, Newt Gingrich recieves 23 delegates, Mitt Romney 2.
FLORIDA 50 Delegates
Florida has 50 Delegates in 2012.
(Also a victim of Rule 15b as explained in above link.)
Florida was a Statewide Winner take All primary. All 50 Delegates are bound. Based on the popular vote held on January 31st, Mitt Romney was awarded all 50 delegates.
NEVADA 28 Delegates
Nevada has 28 Delegates. Oddly, our research has led to an as of yet unresolved conflict in reporting. Both ‘The Green Papers” (see link below-a) and a contact working on the ground in Nevada for the state GOP in Clark County affirm that delegates are to be awarded on a percentage basis for the share each candidate receives of the popular vote. The Nevada State GOP website (See link below-b) contradicts this information, however, and states that the delegates are not bound and are open to vote their conscience during the intitial and any subsequent votes at the National Convention. For purposes of this article, we will assume these delegates are bound and award 1 delegate per 3.57% of the popular vote, proper apportionment based on 28 total delegates. Based on popular vote from February 4th, Mitt Romney would receive 14, Newt Gingrich 6, Ron Paul 5, Rick Santorum 3.
MINNESOTA 40 Delegates
Minnesota has 40 Delegates. This is a caucus convention state, like Iowa before and Colorado now, and Missouri next month (info to follow.) No delegates have been determined and none are bound to any candidate based on the popular “Presidential preference poll” held Fbruary 7th.
COLORADO 36 Delegates
Colorado has 36 Delegates. Caucus convention, same as Iowa and Minnesota. No delegates have been selected or are bound to any candidate.
MISSOURI 52 Delegates
Missouri has 52 Delegates. I’m sure you’ve heard every pundit this side of the moon use the phrase ‘meaningless beauty contest’ to describe Missouri’s “Presidential preference poll” from February 7th. While it is an accurate statement, it is still misleading. It is no different than Iowa, Minnesota or Colorado in that the polls have NO bearing on which candidates the eventual delegates will vote for at the convention. The only difference is Missouri has two completely separate dates for the processes.
OK, so now I’ve bored you with minutia. Here is the direct breakdown with highlighted bits of information to consider.
New Hampshire-7. South Carolina-2. Florida-50. Nevada 14*. (Romney also has pledges from 17 Automatic Delegates- see info below.) Romney’s current TOTAL including pledges; 90
South Carolina 23. Nevada-6*. (3 pledges) TOTAL including pledges; 32
New Hampshire 3. Nevada- 5*. (1 pledge) TOTAL incl. pledges; 9
NONE. (1 pledge) TOTAL incl pledges; 1
Ron Paul’s campiagn plan all along has been to do well with open or non-binding caucus delegates. As of this writing, our understanding; He will garner more than 1/2 of Iowa’s 25 open, will win the majority of Minnesota’s 40, collect much better than popular vote suggests in Colorado and is poised for terrific numbers in Missouri. When added to word that the Ron Paul camp is doing exceptionally well in the week long Maine caucuses, there is reason for optimism!
(Automatic Delegates, sometimes referred to as “Super Delegates” are 117 total convention voters comprised of 3 delegates for each state and protectorate of the United States, with exceptions noted in the link); http://www.democraticconventionwatch.com/diary/4726/republican-superdelegate-endorsement-list
117 “Super Delegates are open, 17 have pledged to Romney, 3 to Newt, 1 each to Ron Paul and Santorum.
271 Delegates from states that have already voted, but only 113 re awarded as follows;
ROMNEY 73, GINGRICH 29, PAUL 8, SANTORUM 3 (2 were awarded to Huntsman but now are open.)
158 have made the news, and are often attributed to candidates but are, in fact, not yet bound. Of these 158 there are many indications Ron Paul likely holds upwards of half.
This race is nowhere NEAR over. As much as the media contnues to try to convince us Ron Paul is in trouble, the truth is Santorum and Gingrich are the trailers in the ‘cash register’ where it counts!